The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published a report in mid-September estimating that if current trends in the Ebola outbreak continue without a ramped up effort, then Ebola cases in West Africa would double every 20 days. In that situation, Ebola cases could reach up 1.4 million by January.
It’s a worst-case scenario estimate, but that’s only one caveat behind the 1.4 million figure, which remains muddled by research limitations and assumptions. While health experts and a CDC official told TIME that it’s common in public health surveillance projects to report overestimates, the fact that this is the worst Ebola outbreak in history adds additional levels of uncertainty in forecasting an unprecedented epidemic.
Here are five reasons why we may never know Ebola’s true impact, despite health experts’ best efforts to fully understand the virus’ deadly potential:
1. Most Ebola cases aren’t reported
CDC researchers believe that…
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